visa: US visa curbs, AI surge shape cautious outlook for Indian IT in 2026

India‘s $280-billion IT industry heads into 2026, balancing visa-related headwinds and global trade uncertainty against its biggest-ever push into artificial intelligence and the rapid expansion of global capability centres (GCCs).

Heightened scrutiny of the US H-1B visa programme – including a proposed $100,000 fee for new visas and concerns over a potential 25% outsourcing tax – has complicated cross-border delivery for Indian firms, even as companies accelerate efforts to reduce reliance on onsite staffing.

The US remains the sector’s largest export…