A surge in Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refinery facilities has triggered widespread fuel shortages and price hikes across parts of Russia, according to a detailed investigation by BBC Verify. The latest escalation highlights how crucial these refineries are to Russia’s economy and its ongoing war efforts, while also signaling Ukraine’s growing reliance on long-range drone technology.
Surge in Attacks on Oil Refineries
Since January 2025, at least 21 of Russia’s 38 large oil refinery sites have been targeted. These facilities convert crude oil into petrol, diesel, and other fuels vital for both civilian and military use. Verified footage and Russian media reports reveal that successful strikes this year are already 48% higher than in the entire year of 2024.
August marked the most intense period, with 14 oil refinery plants hit, followed by eight more in September. Some of the attacks reached deep inside Russian territory, including the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat facility in Bashkortostan, located more than 1,100 kilometers from Ukraine. The massive Ryazan refinery near Moscow, one of the largest in the country, has been struck five times since January.
Ukraine’s Strategy and Messaging
Ukrainian officials have not directly confirmed individual strikes, but President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly framed the targeting of oil refinery infrastructure as a key tactic.
“The most effective sanctions are the fires at Russia’s oil refineries, its terminals, oil depots. We have significantly restricted Russia’s oil industry, and this significantly restricts the war,” Zelensky said in a September address.
By hitting both high-capacity oil refinery complexes and smaller plants closer to the Ukrainian border, Kyiv appears to be pursuing a two-fold strategy: disrupting Russian military supply lines while also undermining the broader economy.
Civilian Impact in Russia
The consequences of these strikes are becoming increasingly visible. Verified videos show long queues at petrol stations across Siberia and Russia’s Far East. Some independent petrol stations have been forced to suspend operations entirely, as managers explained they would rather wait out the crisis than operate at a loss.
Fuel prices have surged dramatically, with wholesale costs rising 40% since January. In occupied Crimea, rationing measures have been introduced to maintain supply, while several garages in remote regions have shut down. One petrol station manager in Novosibirsk compared the current situation to the deep economic turbulence of the early 1990s.
Interestingly, many residents in Moscow and western Russia remain largely unaffected, highlighting how unevenly the crisis is being felt across the country.
Moscow’s Response
Kremlin spokespersons have maintained that the government is keeping the situation under control. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak recently extended a partial ban on petrol exports until the end of 2025 to preserve domestic supplies. However, opposition figures argue that such measures are insufficient to offset the impact of ongoing oil refinery shutdowns.
The tightly controlled Russian press has attributed shortages to “unscheduled refinery shutdowns,” a veiled reference to the strikes.
Global and Strategic Implications
While the attacks are disrupting Russia’s domestic energy balance, they have not significantly impacted crude oil exports, which remain the country’s main source of revenue. Analysts note that most of Russia’s oil income comes from unrefined crude, not refined fuels like petrol or diesel.
Still, the attacks on oil refinery facilities reduce Russia’s ability to generate higher profits from refined products and create logistical headaches for fuel distribution.
Military experts suggest the uptick in strikes represents a core campaign by Ukraine to weaken Russia’s war machine. “This campaign is clearly designed to increase pressure on Russia’s economy and stretch its military logistics,” said Justin Crump, CEO of risk consultancy Sibylline.
Looking Ahead
The intensification of attacks on Russia’s oil refinery network signals a turning point in Ukraine’s military strategy. While these strikes alone may not cripple Moscow’s economy, they are undeniably raising the costs of war for Russia. At the same time, ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the consequences at petrol pumps and in daily life.
As Ukraine continues to refine its drone capabilities, further strikes on oil refinery targets are expected. The key question now is whether these disruptions will push Moscow closer to the negotiating table or provoke harsher retaliatory measures.
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