Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) share price witnessed a dramatic plunge of 28% on Thursday, hitting ₹135.26 on the NSE, following a major regulatory update from the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC). The crash in the IEX share price came after CERC approved the implementation of market coupling for India’s power exchanges, a move that has stirred concerns among investors and analysts alike.
What Triggered the Fall in IEX Share Price?
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has announced that market coupling will be introduced in a phased manner, starting with the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) by January 2026. This mechanism will pool bids from multiple power exchanges and centrally match them to determine a uniform clearing price.
Currently, IEX dominates the DAM and Real-Time Market (RTM) segments, which together contribute around 80% of its total revenue. However, with the new rules, IEX’s ability to control liquidity and price discovery is under threat, which significantly weakens its competitive edge.
Why Market Coupling Worries Investors
Market coupling, though intended to improve transparency and efficiency, also levels the playing field across exchanges. For a dominant player like IEX, this raises serious questions about revenue sustainability and future market share.
This fear was reflected instantly in the IEX share price crash. The development also comes just ahead of the company’s Q1 FY26 earnings, further amplifying uncertainty around short-term performance.
Key Brokerages React to IEX Share Price Crash
Market experts and brokerage houses offered a split opinion on the impact of market coupling on IEX:
- Bernstein downgraded its rating to “Market-Perform” and slashed the target price to ₹122 from ₹160, calling the move “as bad as it gets.”
- Axis Capital highlighted that IEX’s EPS could drop 30% if market coupling had been implemented in FY25.
- On the contrary, UBS maintained a ‘Buy’ call with a price target of ₹285, emphasizing that the estimated benefit of the move, in terms of volume and pricing efficiency, is marginal (0.01%–0.3%).
Outlook: Is There a Recovery Ahead for IEX Share Price?
With the full implementation of market coupling still over a year away, investors now await clarity from IEX’s management during the Q1 earnings call. Market participants will focus on how the company plans to adapt its strategy, diversify its product base, and preserve its market share.
Despite the fall, some analysts argue that the correction in the IEX share price could be an overreaction, and long-term investors might find value if the company can successfully navigate the regulatory changes.
However, the uncertainty surrounding revenue projections and competitive dynamics in a post-coupling market means caution is advised. Until more clarity emerges, the volatility in IEX share price is expected to persist.
Conclusion: Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell IEX?
The decision depends on your risk appetite and investment horizon. While the recent IEX share price crash reflects legitimate concerns, the company still holds a strong operational history and loyal client base. Investors are advised to monitor upcoming earnings, CERC implementation timelines, and competitive responses from other exchanges.
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