China needs to cut emissions by 6% over 2024-2025 to catch up, but they are expected to inch up by a further 0.4% in 2024, according to CREA calculations, and radical measures will be required to meet the target next year.
Progress has been made in curbing new steel and coal-fired power capacity, and a rapid decline in cement production has also slowed emissions growth, but CO2 from a rapidly expanding coal-to-chemicals industry increased 12.5% this year, CREA said.
China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment did not immediately respond to a Reuters for comment.
The world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter is currently working on a new set of climate targets known as “nationally determined contributions”, which it needs to submit to the United Nations by February.It has pledged to bring total emissions to a peak before 2030 but the United States and others have been pushing it to commit to substantial cuts by 2035.While 44% of experts polled by CREA believe China’s emissions have peaked already, there was still room for further increases before 2030, with a new package of economic stimulus measures launched in September likely to spur growth in carbon-intensive sectors, CREA said.
China has revealed no details about its new pledges, but an influential state-run think tank said in October that it would encourage the government to set its first ever absolute carbon emission reduction target for 2035.
“The concern is that the current thinking on emission targets for the next decade is very conservative,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA’s lead analyst.
“Setting an absolute target isn’t progress per se. It’s the level of the target that matters.”
